You fuckas never answered me the other day... Given the current credit issues on Wall st. and Main st. - are you giving predicto/farang some bonus points for at least warning us (10 months ago) that there was some form of trouble ahead. C'mon Bunky, panda, and (perhaps) trebor. Give this man a cookie at least.

I'll give you the tip of my penis! How's that for appreciation?

We disagree. Nice!

There is no actual feces falling from the sky today therefore there is no shitstorm fuk-face.

And you are? It's not about being right. Just a month ago, everyone was saying gas would continue to go up forever, especially the we-are-in-a-doomsday-depression folks, and that turned out to be wrong. You are too small minded to understand this next part, but I'm going to say it anyway: If you were to stop trying to prove how RIGHT you are and focus instead on sharing opposing/differing views, you may actually reach a new level of understanding by engaging with the opposition. Instead you trade the pursuit of knowledge for pride. Grow the fuck up.

Main Street and Wall Street are insignificant.

credit for what....being lucky? No one's predictive ability can be judged from the results of one prediction. But sure, i'll give him bonus points for being lucky.

Fair enough Bunky... I just gave you some positive points. That doesn't make up for the -5 you gave me my man.

guilty as charged...i take back my -5 and give you a +5 now!

You know, I've been here a long time and as crazy - well at least obsessed - as you appear to be sometimes, I can't discount your apparent honesty and frankness. Not that it goes far on an "anonymous" discussion forum. There are many times where I believe you are completely full of shit (contractor for Fidelty, 300K, not a jofo troll, ...). And, equally, there are times where I feel you are mostly "laying it out" truthfully. I'm sure you keep some details hidden, given the nut-jobs on this forum. I've always said, you are one interesting chap, Bunky.

Even insane people have moments of lucidity daily.

thanks....as i've said, this is all one big... ...social experiment for me, with many useful purposes for me(which i dont care to explain) peace out

That's like the strippers who say they study when you ask them basic questions they stammer and stutter. Clearly we are not that stupid. You failed in your experiment - BIG TIME.

your argument has zero basis You dont know what the purposes of my experiment are

Oh I can guess what it is

Nuh, you are just a teenager using this as a

it is when it diverges that widely from the.... "market probability" of something happening. The best geniuses in any market (whether it's sports betting, puts/s, futures, Intrade contracts, etc) only have about a 5% edge on their very best plays (and once in awhile, can get as high as 60%) in all-or-nothing bets (i.e. a bet where you double your money if you win, and lose it all if you lose). For example - if the market thinks there's a 50% chance that the Patriots -3 will cover, then the best bettors out there might find an 'edge' that allow them to pick the Patriots, with 55% probability of a victory greater than 3 (assuming such an edge exists for that game, which it doesnt always). The same analogy applies with the stock prices in parts of the financial sector. The highest 'odds delta' on any all-or-nothing put/ bet that any genius made back in, let's say, January, would've been about 5% (i.e. 55% vs 50%). It's luck that things turned out as severely as they did. There were plenty of finance professionals just as smart as Farang who were *long* these stocks, and those professionals had access to the exact same articles and information Farang did. The reason that any bettor's edge rarely gets higher than 5% or so, is that everyone has the same information (and there are many unknown variables, and known variables with unknown values, and randomness mixed in - all of which leads to elements of randomness in the prediction results). The reason there are bettors who have an edge (i dont believe markets are efficient) is that they process the public information more intelligently than the market does. The fact that things turned out as severely as they did has little to do with Farang's predictive ability ... his arguments were based on publicly available information. At most, he had a 5% or so 'edge', assuming he had the same predictive skill as the best hedge funds (and that's a generous assumption). An analogy in sports betting is that you pick the Patriots -3 and think you're a genius if they win 50 to 0.

Whoa! Bunky's longest post ever^

correction^ "The best geniuses in any market (whether it's sports betting, puts/s, futures, Intrade contracts, etc) only have about a 5% edge on their very best plays (and once in awhile, can get as high as 60%) in all-or-nothing bets (i.e. a bet where you double your money if you win, and lose it all if you lose)." CORRECTION: ... in awhile, can get as high as ** 10 **%) ...

This is hardly a question of luck economic climate the past year or so, maybe longer, you knew that this was going to happen. It was only a question of would these firms be able to survive until Obama takes office or if it would happen on Bush's watch. Fortunately for us, it happened on Bush's watch which SHOULD give NeoCons reason to not vote for another NeoCon for a VERY long time. Don't blame this on the Democrats, if anything the only crime they committed was that they were to wimpy to attempt anything. That's bad but not THIS bad.

As much as I dislike Bush.. Let's don't get too political about this. Sure, the floodgates of easy credit were probably used as a ploy to get the re-election in 2004. However a majority of the blame should fall on the short-sighted banking institutions - and borrowers/consumers. The OP.

Nah, I'm not letting him off the hook. His crap about encouraging home ownership will not be forgotten, and he appointed several tards to important positions (Chairman of the SEC, local tard Chris Cox, the Chairman of the Futures Trading Commission is a lawyer/lobbyist). I am sure I am forgetting many, many tards. These tards sat back and ignored early indicators, and failed to take early actions that might have lessened the blow.

The home ownership thing on the surface I don't know of many people who don't have that dream of actually having a piece of property that they can theirs. Your problem is that you seem to be an apologist for 8 years of bad economic policy. What annoys me is that you have 'libertarians' or 'conservatives' who have the cajones to actually say it's the Democrats fault. Hate to say this, but Truman said it best "The Buck Stops Here!" Bush claims he's the decider - he decided to get us in this mess... the $64 question is what is he going to do to get us out - or what is the next administration going to do to keep us afloat. It's times like this that makes me think that Obama may be in over his head if he wins in November because every Republican is going to pin everything that has happened on his shoulders and that's just not right.

that's fine, but c'mon, Dems take the blame too All the liberal activist organizations over the years who made the argument that credit should be easier, so that low-income folks could get mortgages too. So let's be fair here, blame 'em all!

Nope.. can't do that wanted easier credit, but it didn't mean that they'd be open to being preyed upon by unscrupulous people who knew that they wouldn't be able to afford what they were buying. Dems actually believe in responsiblity. The typical mantra that the Republicans say lately "Tax and Spend" is almos funny - maybe in the past that may not have been such a big deal, but since we are so far in debt now, the concept of 'pay as you go' makes more and more sense. Another thing, Dems do believe in personal accountability. But tell me something Bunky, and be honest - have you ever done something that you have regretted later or did it even though you didn't fully understand what you were doing? If you say no, you're lying because EVERYONE has done that at least once in their lives. The thing here is that Dems believe in protecting people if things fall apart, Republicans say it's your fault - suck it up even if things go really bad - that is unless you are a CEO of a big company then it's okay... So no... can't blame the Dems for any of this.

I am not blaming Bush just for that and his party for what the represent. I blame people like Phil Gramm who say that we are in a "mental recession" and that things are fine, but game the system in such a way that they make off like bandits on the side. I blame people like Cheney who undoubtedly has shares in Halliburton even though he left in 2000 and is profiting quite nicely about this. I blame people like McCain who first understand the gravity of the situation and then will whore themselves out at any cost to get elected, including being willing to be paired up with one of the worst candidates the Republicans have come up with in quite some time. As much as I hate Bush, I truly think that the majority of the problems stem from the fact his Daddy works behind the scenes and he has a bunch of thugs working with him. Do you see my point?

Speaking of Palin, did you see SNL? I love Tina Fey:

Nope... tend to avoid sketsh shows since they is it really worth watching?

watch it! watch it! watch it!