Whitehouse warns of 10% jobless rate I'd rather stick with the ol' 'No News is Good News' routine.

Then how do you reconcile this.................. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) rose by 584,000 over the month to 5.0 million. In July, 1 in 3 unemploy- ed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.

Reality Check The 9.4% unemployment rate that the Federal government reports is something of a gimmick. Many people know that the ACTUAL unemployment rate is much greater. About 14%. Maybe higher. The government statistics are often "skewed" to look better. For example, the 9.4% unemployment figure DOESN'T include the following: * Unemployed people who have exhaused UI bennies * Unemployed people who have given up looking * Unemployed people who have only Part-Time work

The UE rate has NOTHING to do with who draws UI Go to the BLS web site, and read their methodologies. The UE rate is derived from what is known as the "household survey".

true, but you don't understand the rate anyway it went down because 267,000 people weren't counted as unemployed because they had been classified as "having given up looking for work"..even the BLS admits this however you'll be hard pressed to find it mentioned in mainstream CNN or MSNBC....but you will find it buried in a footnote.

Actually, the figure is based on individuals that were downsized and actually seeking to re-enter the work force on a full time basis, even if they are currently working part time at the moment regardless of whether or not they are collecting Unemployment insurance.

And then there is always........................ Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 247,000 in July. From May to July, job losses averaged 331,000 per month, compared with losses averaging 645,000 per month from November to April. Since December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.7 million. Employment in construction declined by 76,000 in July, about in line with the average for the past 3 months. Employment had decreased by 117,000 a month on average from November to April. Manufacturing employment fell by 52,000 in July and has declined by 2.0 million since the recession began. In motor vehicles and parts, fewer workers than usual were laid off in July for seasonal retooling. As a result, the estimate of employment for the industry rose by 28,000 after seasonal adjustment. In large part, July's seasonally-adjusted increase reflects the fact that previous job cuts had been so extensive that there were fewer workers to lay off during the seasonal shutdown. Elsewhere in manufacturing, several industries continued to lose jobs in July, including machinery and fabricated metal products.

Just courious, What do you base your statement that the recession is over on?

Because President Obama SAID SO !!! Thus, the Great Recession is offiy over. Be aware that the recession might linger even longer if you fail to believe what the President has official decreed.

Economic Theories When I was in college, my economics teachers HEAVILY lived by the "self fulfilling prophecy". For example, if people think that a bank is going to fail, they will all rush to withdraw their money, with the obvious results that the otherwise financially health bank WILL fail. In other words, consumer behavior, not bad management or anything, is what caused the bank to fail. Going further, if we believe President Obama's decree that the recession is over, then we will start spending more, businesses will start doing better, and WHAMO!!! we'll all start earning more. Economics is driven by what we, the consumers, believe. In this case, if we believe what President Obama says, we'll all be better off.

I tend to like the 'Burger and Fries' theory of economics.

Getting A Job At McDonald's That might be where I end up working until a better job comes along. You can actually see the "Burger and Fries" theory in action: More sales at McDonald's ==> more fat, obese people ==> higher health costs to treat them ==> more business for hospitals . . .

No, that's not what I meant, This is a quote from an old article by Lewis Napper. "In 1938, when the Fair Labor Standards Act was passed, setting minimum wage at 40 cents an hour, one hour of work would buy you a burger an order of french fries and something to drink. Today, one hour of minimum wage will buy you a burger, fries and something to drink. After years of study, this is the most useful economic indicator I've ever seen!"

Learned Something New My college economics professor was sure that he knew all the "secrets" of economic success. He never talked about things like the "minimum wage" or buying meals. Thanks for teaching me about the "Burgers and Fries" theory.

Here is the entire article. It is old, but really applies today. Let me know what you think.

that and one gallon of gas costs about the same as one pack of cigarettes.

I agree with part of that theory, In the respect that consumer confidence does play a big factor, as short-sighted as it is at times. However, I disagree that it is pure faith alone. For most, consumer confiddence is based on how secure one feels about the stabilty of their livlyhood, i.e. their job. When the private sector behaves badly by cutting corners and cutting jobs in the process, that casues most to lose faith in business and the economy in general, so yes, bad management is a major contributor! As the government is when it fails to enforce regulations or when it tries to micro-manage the private sector, the performance of the Private sector suffers.

Lost Confidence Actually, I lost confidence in Obama's plans long ago. Despite all his work, I'm still unemployed.

What work? The Private sector is what drives the economy. It is governments role only to enforce the law and regulations. When it doesn't do that, business will behave badly because there are little to no consiquenses for their actions. And for the the same reasons I mentioned in my previous post, those businesses will fail! However, if the government starts to micro-manage the private sector and penalize it with high taxation, than the private sector slows down, regarldless of which party is in power.

If he said the sky was green? I am sorry, but until I see more money in my bank account the recession isn't over. If I can't pay my bills it doesn't matter what any president says. If 1 our of 10 people on my street are out or work or losing their house, what the man in the white house says isn't going to change that. Yes, I know the theory you are talking about, and positive thinking can sure help, but it isn't going to make it happen. For this to end we have to see more people working.